How energy strategies are shaped by the correlation of uncertainties

A.F. Rodríguez Matas, C. Ruiz, P. Linares, M. Pérez-Bravo

Applied Energy Vol. 382, pp. 125257-1 - 125257-11

Summary:

In the face of the global climate crisis, countries worldwide are striving for a shift in their energy systems from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. This complex energy transition faces significant uncertainties, which must be addressed correctly to produce resilient and reliable investment strategies.
This study systematically incorporates, for the first time, the correlation between uncertainties into a strategic energy planning model, in order to determine robust and consistent decarbonization strategies. Using the Spanish energy system as a real-size case study, we assess the impact of accounting for the correlations between primary energy prices and energy technology investment costs on strategic energy decisions. Our results reveal that decarbonization strategies significantly vary with the degree of correlation, and hence not accounting correctly for it may result in significant errors. When compared to the uncorrelated baseline scenario, a positive correlation results in increased fossil fuel use and reduced renewable deployment, whereas a negative correlation leads to higher renewable deployment and electrification.

Spanish layman's summary:

Este estudio muestra cómo las correlaciones entre incertidumbres, como precios de energía y costes tecnológicos, afectan las estrategias de descarbonización. Usando España como caso de estudio, evidenciamos la importancia de considerar estas correlaciones.

English layman's summary:

This study reveals how correlations between uncertainties, like energy prices and technology costs, affect decarbonization strategies. Using Spain as a case study, we show that ignoring correlations can lead to significant errors in energy planning.

Keywords: Correlation, Uncertainty, Long-term energy planning, Spain, Energy model

JCR Impact Factor and WoS quartile: 10,100 - Q1 (2023)

DOI reference: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.125257

Published on paper: March 2025.

Published on-line: January 2025.

Citation:
A.F. Rodríguez Matas, C. Ruiz, P. Linares, M. Pérez-Bravo, How energy strategies are shaped by the correlation of uncertainties. Applied Energy. Vol. 382, pp. 125257-1 - 125257-11, March 2025. [Online: January 2025]